2025 Adebayo Adedeji Memorial Lecture At The 57th Session Of UN Economic Commission For Africa In Ethiopia

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LECTURE DELIVERED BY PROF. YEMI OSINBAJO, SAN, GCON, IMMEDIATE PAST VICE PRESIDENT OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA AT THE 2025 ADEBAYO ADEDEJI MEMORIAL LECTURE THEMED: “ADVANCING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AGREEMENT ESTABLISHING THE AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA: PROPOSING TRANSFORMATIVE STRATEGIC ACTIONS” AT THE 57TH SESSION OF THE UN ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA IN ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA ON THE 17TH OF MARCH, 2025

PROTOCOLS

Let me begin by thanking Mr. Claver Gatete, Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa and his team for the honour done to me by the kind invitation to give the Adebayo Adedeji Memorial Lecture. It is to the ECA that the credit goes for the original and bold thinking that birthed the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement. It continues to be instrumental in guiding its implementation, serving as a trusted technical advisor, repository of specialised knowledge, offering data-driven insights, policy recommendations, and implementation strategies to help African nations maximise the benefits of the AfCFTA.

I will speak on the theme of the Conference: “Advancing the Implementation of the Agreement Establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area: Proposing Transformative Strategic Actions”. The Adebayo Adedeji Memorial Lecture pays homage to one of Africa’s most influential economists and policymakers: Professor Adebayo Adedeji. As the Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) from 1975 to 1991, Adedeji provided bold and independent thinking at critical moments in Africa’s economic history, with the underlying theme of African integration as a developmental paradigm.

Beginning with the Lagos Plan of Action 1980, an ambitious roadmap for Africa’s long-term economic development that prioritised regional integration recognising that Africa’s small, fragmented economies needed to unite and focus on industrialisation and value-added production. He championed the African Alternative Framework to Structural Adjustment Programmes (AAF-SAP) – 1989, a response to the failures of the IMF and World Bank-imposed Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) in many African countries. Running through Adedeji’s ideas and advocacy through the years was his strong belief that the strength of each African country lay in the strength of the continent. He had presciently argued in the AAF SAP policy paper that African integration must “involve three mutually interdependent dimensions (a) the integration of the physical, social and institutional infrastructure (b) the integration of production structures and (c) the integration of the African markets.” This framework is as relevant today as it was over three decades ago.

The occasion of this lecture allows us to reflect not only on Professor Adedeji’s remarkable legacy but also on how far we have come as a continent in pursuing his vision of African economic integration. It gives us an opportunity to take stock of our progress with the AfCFTA and to chart a bold course forward that honours the original ambition behind this historic agreement.

From Prof. Adedeji, we learn that it is by challenging received wisdom, and allowing ourselves to be bold, independent and visionary in our thinking, that we will best serve the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

What makes Adedeji’s vision so enduring is his understanding that Africa’s development challenges required African solutions – solutions that recognised the continent’s unique historical context, its resource endowments, and its place in the global economy. He rejected the notion that Africa should simply follow development models designed elsewhere and instead advocated for homegrown strategies that addressed Africa’s specific needs and aspirations.

It is in this spirit that we must approach the implementation of the AfCFTA not as a standard trade agreement, but as a transformative instrument designed specifically to address Africa’s unique economic developmental challenges. We must be willing to innovate, experiment, and forge new paths where existing models prove inadequate.

First, let us reflect on the AfCFTA as an enabling instrument for the African Economic Community. The AfCFTA is by far the most ambitious development project the continent has ever undertaken, and its success will define its economic future. It is the crucial missing piece in solving Africa’s development puzzle because it premises its success on addressing the structural weaknesses that have long hindered economic growth, industrialisation, and integration across the continent.

The AfCFTA must therefore not be seen as being just about trade liberalisation; it is a transformative tool for economic development, job creation, and Africa’s global competitiveness. The FTA creates a single market with a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion and is expected to add $ 450 billion to Africa’s income by 2035, according to the World Bank.

For a continent with the fastest growing and largest youth population, the FTA would address the question of good-paying jobs and generally reducing poverty – creating 14 million jobs and removing 50 million Africans from poverty while increasing wages for both skilled and unskilled workers.

What is the current state of AfCFTA’s implementation and its implications?

It has been five years since implementation began, and whatever else we may say, the speed from its inception in 2018, coming into force in 2019, and operationalisation in 2021 is to be commended. The FTA stands out, by far, as the most rapidly ratified legal instrument by the Member States since the inception of the African Union, and this may well be the strongest evidence of the realisation by member states of the urgency of the moment.

For trade in goods, over 45 countries’ Provisional Schedules of Tariff Concessions for market access have been adopted under the FTA. Rules of Origin have been agreed for over 90 per cent of products. In Trade in Services, 24 Schedules of Specific Commitments covering five priority sectors have been adopted. The FTA’s Guided Trade Initiative (GTI) was recently concluded, and 39 countries have indicated completion of key domestic processes to use the AfCFTA to trade in goods. This is no small feat.

The AfCFTA’s Adjustment Facility Fund has also been set up to support member states in mitigating tariff losses and other adjustment costs of liberalisation of trade. This is important, considering that for many African countries, tariffs account for nearly 10% of revenues. The adjustment fund will also mobilise concessional funding for trade, enabling infrastructure and commercial funding to assist both the private and public sectors. The total resources required for the Adjustment Fund over the next 5 to 10 years are estimated at US$10 billion, with Afreximbank committing US$1 billion towards this initiative.

A major constraint for intra-African trade has been the inability to trade in local currencies. The establishment of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) is a response to that problem. The settlement system was developed by Afrexim Bank in collaboration with the African Union and the AfCFTA Secretariat, and it facilitates real-time settlement of intra-African trade and payments in local currencies, across the continent. PAPSS is live in 15 countries, has 12 switches and 51 participating banks. Complementing that is MANSA, also an initiative supported by the AFCFTA. MANSA is Africa’s digital due diligence repository. It is a single source containing information on African companies, including financial institutions, Corporations and SMEs. The purpose of the stored information is to facilitate potential investors or trading partners performing Customer Due Diligence (CDD) and Know Your Customer (KYC) checks on African companies and entities.

The progress in these different respects, while commendable, reveals both the potential and the challenges of the AfCFTA. On the one hand, the political commitment demonstrated by the rapid ratification suggests a genuine continental consensus around the agreement’s objectives, on the other hand, the more complex technical implementation has proceeded at a much slower pace, reflecting the significant adjustments required in national policies, regulations and institutions. The experience with the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI) has been particularly instructive.

While it successfully demonstrated the feasibility of preferential trade under the AfCFTA framework, it also highlighted practical challenges related to logistics, customs procedures, domestic taxes and levies, and documentation requirements. These early trades have provided valuable learning opportunities and have informed ongoing efforts to streamline implementation processes. What is required now is a candid assessment of where we are and what we need to do to realize the full potential of this ambitious agreement.

So what are the Strategic Actions for a Bold Future?

The challenges impeding the full realization of the AfCFTA are well-documented and understood. Rather than dwell on them, what is needed now is a bold vision for the future and strategic actions to bring that vision to life. Looking ahead, we must focus on tangible steps that will transform the potential of the AfCFTA into reality:

1. Investing in Strategic Transportation and Logistics Infrastructure:

The transportation and logistics network represents perhaps the most critical constraint to intra-African trade. Under the GTI, for Kenya to ship its Exide Batteries to Ghana, it took six weeks because the shipment was through Singapore! This extended route was due to the vessel not being fully loaded; it needed to pick up additional cargo in Singapore before proceeding to Ghana. Such logistical challenges are common in Africa, where limited cabotage traffic often necessitates detours to ports like Singapore or European hubs to consolidate cargo before reaching the final destination on the continent. A significant increase in container fleets is needed, alongside the emergence of continental and inland waterways.

Specifically, we need to develop regional maritime shipping capacity with dedicated vessels for intra-African routes, and modernized port infrastructure with efficient cargo handling systems. We need to complete cross-border rail networks to reduce the 77% reliance on expensive road transport as noted by the ECA. We need air cargo hubs strategically positioned to serve regional markets.

These investments must be approached not as national projects but as continental assets critical to our collective prosperity. The scale of investment required is substantial, but so too are the potential returns. Infrastructure investments specifically targeting intra-African trade corridors would yield even higher returns by directly enabling the kind of trade expansion envisioned under the FTA. We must be innovative in mobilizing the necessary resources. Traditional public financing and development assistance will not be sufficient, we need to leverage private capital through well-structured public-private partnerships and explore alternative financing mechanisms in the financing of these critical assets.

2. Accelerate Ratification and Implementation of AfCFTA Protocols:

The Protocols on Investment, Intellectual Property, Competition Policy, Digital Trade, and Women and Youth in Trade, represent Africa’s ambitions codified in legal instruments. These must be brought to life through ratification and alignment of domestic legal systems. They provide the framework for transforming the continent’s economic landscape but remain largely on paper rather than in practice.

Member states must expedite domestic ratification processes and harmonise national laws with protocol provisions. The business community needs clarity and certainty about the rules governing continental trade, which will come from the full implementation of these protocols.

Beyond ratification, effective implementation requires building institutional capacity at both the continental and national levels. National trade facilitation committees, investment promotion agencies, competition authorities, and intellectual property offices need strengthening to effectively administer their respective aspects of the agreement. Technical assistance and peer learning should be prioritised to ensure that capacity constraints do not become bottlenecks to implementation. Moreover, we must recognise that protocol implementation is not a one-time event but an ongoing process that requires continuous monitoring, evaluation, and adjustment. Regular reviews of implementation progress should inform targeted interventions to address emerging challenges and bottlenecks.

3. Build Productive Capacity for the Fourth Industrial Revolution:

The initial trade basket under the AfCFTA already shows promising signs, with value-added goods composing a significant proportion of trade. However, we need to accelerate industrial transformation to truly capitalise on the agreement’s potential. African production must embrace Robotics, the Internet of Things, and Artificial Intelligence as central elements of industrial processes. Consider the transformative potential: Robotics can be deployed in manufacturing sectors such as automotive assembly, electronics production, and food processing.

Automated systems maintain precision while operating continuously, allowing African manufacturers to achieve consistency and scale that can compete globally. Collaborative robots that work alongside humans can increase productivity while preserving jobs. The Internet of Things creates opportunities for remote management of industrial systems. Manufacturing facilities can implement sensors that monitor production lines in real time, identifying maintenance needs before breakdowns occur. In agriculture, precision farming uses connected devices to optimise irrigation and fertilisation. In healthcare, the Internet of Things enables remote consultations and monitoring, extending specialised care to rural communities.

Artificial Intelligence has broad applications from predictive maintenance in transportation to quality control in manufacturing. AI systems can manage complex processes, simultaneously increasing safety and efficiency. In logistics, AI optimises routes and resource allocation, reducing costs and environmental impact. These technologies are not futuristic fantasies but present realities that can be deployed across Africa with the right infrastructure and skills. This transformation requires: significantly increased investments in power generation and distribution, expanded affordable internet access across the continent, digital skilling programs focused on production rather than just consumption, and research and development hubs that adapt global technologies to African contexts.

Our industrial development strategies must leap beyond traditional industrialisation paths to position Africa competitively in global value chains. The Fourth Industrial Revolution offers an opportunity to overcome historical disadvantages if we act decisively.

4. We must address the Movement of People:

This would mean fast-tracking the ratification of the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons. It is only through the free movement of African entrepreneurs, professionals, and skilled workers that we can fully activate the potential of our goods and services markets. Visa barriers and work permit restrictions currently undermine the very essence of a single market. The economic case for free movement is compelling. Studies by the World Bank and others have demonstrated that increased labour mobility leads to higher productivity, knowledge transfer, and innovation. In the context of the AfCFTA, free movement is particularly important for the development of the services sector, which often requires physical presence for service delivery. While security and sovereignty concerns are legitimate, they should not be used as pretexts for maintaining unnecessary restrictions on movement. We need pragmatic, phased approaches that balance these concerns with the economic imperative of increased mobility. This could include mutual recognition of qualifications, streamlined visa processes for business travellers, and special provisions for specific categories of workers aligned with regional development priorities.

5. We must Document and Scale Success Models:

The rapid ratification of the AfCFTA demonstrates the continent’s capacity for decisive action when political will exists. We must systematically document early successes under the agreement, analyse what makes them work, and create replicable models for wider application.

Success stories from the Guided Trade Initiative should be studied not just as individual transactions, but as pathways that can be scaled. When a Kenyan battery manufacturer successfully exports to Ghana, despite logistical challenges, what lessons can be applied to facilitate similar trade flows? When Rwanda’s coffee reaches new markets under preferential terms, how can those channels be expanded to other products? I would respectfully suggest that the ECA could consider establishing a knowledge repository of best practices, with detailed case studies of successful trade under the agreement. These should inform practical implementation guidelines that member states can apply in their unique contexts.

Let me quickly raise some more contemporary headwinds that the implementation of the FTA faces. What do we do about the weaponisation of trade and tariffs? These possibilities require preparation and intentionality on the part of national and regional policymakers. There is a need to enhance continental thinking. Africa should learn from the COVID-19 experience when borders were shut and countries put self-interest first. Another crisis is brewing and ostrich mode is not helpful. There is a need to clearly articulate interests – not broadly but informed reflection and analysis should follow on the trading dynamics with the agitated parties, potential scenarios and implications, alongside action to hedge. The trade and peace and democracy and trade nexus are important to consider.

The countries that are yet to ratify the treaty are those with conflict issues. Also, those countries with unconstitutional transitions of power are often removed from regional blocs – with implications for trading dynamics. How should evolving political dynamics be managed in the continental market? I think we may need further reflection on the sanction of excluding erring member states from membership of the AFCFTA to fight unconstitutional changes of power. The difficulty is the glaring problem it will bring to our regional value chain ambitions.

There is also the fact that regional economic integration is hinged on the integration of people, it is the people, the big and small businesses that make economic integration. When we remove offending governments from our regional economic blocs, we punish the people, the people who have worked hard and invested resources in establishing trade across borders perhaps more than the offenders. Integration once disturbed is difficult to recalibrate.

Let us now turn to the future and AfCFTA as the glue for African Integration. It has been five years since the commencement of the implementation of the AfCFTA, looking ahead to the next five years, to 2030, the AfCFTA should serve as the glue that binds Africa’s economic integration.

How? The first is Developed Regional Value Chains: by 2030, Africa should have established robust regional value chains in key sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, agro-processing, and digital services. These value chains should incorporate producers from multiple countries and leverage comparative advantages.

The second is Interconnected Infrastructure: a comprehensive network of roads, railways, ports, and digital infrastructure should seamlessly connect African markets, reducing logistics costs to competitive levels globally.

The third is a Digital Trade Revolution: digital trade, FinTech, and e-commerce represent Africa’s opportunity to leapfrog traditional development constraints. Africa now accounts for half of the world’s mobile money accounts and is ahead of most regions in FinTech and payment solutions. The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) must be fully operational across all member states, allowing businesses to trade in local currencies without conversion costs. Africa’s creative economy – music, film, fashion, and digital content – valued at nearly $59 billion, should grow to become a cornerstone of intra-African trade, especially through digital channels.

The fourth is Technology-Driven Production Systems: by 2030, African manufacturing must be transformed through technology-driven production systems. Smart factories equipped with advanced robotics should be processing our raw materials into finished products. Additive manufacturing (3D printing) should enable localised production of complex components, reducing dependence on imports.

The Internet of Things should connect production facilities across borders, creating integrated manufacturing ecosystems where a design developed in Rwanda can be instantly produced in facilities across Ghana, Kenya, and Morocco. Artificial Intelligence should optimise these production systems, predicting maintenance needs, managing supply chains, and ensuring quality control far more effectively than traditional methods. These technologies will enable African producers to achieve unprecedented levels of productivity, quality, and customisation.

The fifth is Financial Integration: African capital markets should be integrated, enabling companies to raise funds across the continent. Regional stock exchanges should facilitate cross-border investments and harmonised financial regulations should allow financial institutions to operate seamlessly across multiple jurisdictions.

The sixth is the Free Movement of People: African professionals, entrepreneurs, and workers should be able to move freely across borders, contributing their skills and talents where they are most needed. This will activate the full potential of the services component of the AfCFTA.

The seventh is taking advantage of our climate competitiveness, 60% renewable energy potential, 40% critical minerals, a large young workforce to become the first green industrial civilisation in the world, providing new green jobs and opportunities by adopting the Climate Positive Growth paradigm of development endorsed by the AU at the Africa Climate Summit in Nairobi 2023.

Let me conclude by saying that the success or failure of the AfCFTA will turn on one central point: Leadership. African leadership must consider the Continental Trade Agreement important enough to lead the effort to implement it. Indeed to achieve tangible results, “regional integration should be an intentional political project. The same passion and priority accorded to decolonisation and anti-apartheid should inform the regional integration of Africa” (Dipeolu, paraphrased). The best positioned to lead this effort are the largest African economies, as my friend Ambassador Adeyemi Dipeolu puts it: “The African economic hegemons (the larger African economies by economic and population size and structural progress) should step up to the plate, Hegemons should lead industrialisation efforts, Hegemons should arrange compensation mechanisms.” They must lead the charge.

We must be able to attach some names to this effort. The history of the EU is replete with actual political leaders, public intellectuals and technocrats who stuck out their necks and even staked their careers on the success of the EU. Africa needs its own names of leaders who understand that integration is existential for Africa. African political and private sector leaders must be persuaded that trade–led development is a tide huge enough to ensure that every ship floats. They must believe like Adebayo Adedeji did, that the individual success of African nations is best assured by the success of the African continent.

The journey of African integration that Adedeji envisioned decades ago is now at a critical juncture. The AfCFTA provides us with the tools to realise his vision of a unified, prosperous Africa. It is our collective responsibility to turn this vision into reality – not just for ourselves, but for future generations of Africans who deserve to inherit a continent that has fulfilled its immense potential.

Thank you.